AAA predicts that more than 53 MILLION Americans will travel for the Thanksgiving holiday

AAA predicts more than 53million Americans are going to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, a rise in 13 percent from last year, bringing travel volume to almost pre-pandemic levels. 

The total travel volume is forecasted to just be 5 percent below the 2019 figure and air travel is expected to increase by 80 percent compared to 2020, bringing it to just 9 percent below 2019. This year, the Thanksgiving holiday period starts Wednesday, November 24 and lasts until Sunday, November 28. 

However, with recent operational blunders at Southwest and American Airlines, plus TSA staffing issues and a dramatic price increase in airfare deals , many air travelers will be wary that things could get chaotic. About 4.2 million Americans are expected to fly this year to visit their loved ones. 

‘The re-opening of the U.S. borders to international travelers means airports will be even busier than we’ve recently seen, so travelers must plan for longer lines and extra time for TSA checks,’ said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. 

‘With flight delays and cancellations becoming a problem recently, air travelers are encouraged to consider travel insurance. If your flight is cancelled, there are various policies that would help offset unexpected expenses like a hotel, transportation and food. You may also receive compensation for lost luggage, or if your flight is delayed for as little as 3 hours.’ 

This year’s forecast marks the highest single-year increase in Thanksgiving travelers since 2005, bringing travel volumes close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. More than 90 percent of people plan to travel by car as their preferred mode of transportation. Although the car is still the most popular choice for travelers, a greater share will opt to travel by air and other modes such as bus, train or cruise this year

Don’t forget to pack your patience if you plan to travel this holiday season: AAA predicts this year’s Thanksgiving travel to be just below 5 percent of what it was in 2019. This year is also the highest single-year increase in Thanksgiving travelers since 2005

Last month, TSA revealed that only about 60 per cent of its employees are at least partially vaccinated with about a month to go before the November 22 deadline for federal employees to be double-jabbed. If the problem persists, then that could mean extra-long queues at airport security checkpoints during Thanksgiving week.   

But while the most notable improvement this year’s holiday is domestic air travel, the majority of Americans still prefer to take the road, according to AAA, with 48.3 million expected to drive.  

However, analytics company INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the worst congestion heading into the holiday weekend as commuters leave work early and mix with holiday travelers. Drivers in major metro areas across the U.S. are expected to see more than double the delays versus typical drive times.

‘Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips and this year will be no different even during the pandemic,’ says Bob Pishue, Transportation Analyst, INRIX. ‘Drivers around major metros must be prepared for significant delays, especially Wednesday afternoon. Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.’

Last month, it was revealed that only about 60 percent of TSA employees are at least partially vaccinated before the November 22 deadline for federal employees to be fully vaccinated. The potential shortage of airports screeners could mean extra-long queues at airport security checkpoints during the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday travel week 

To avoid road congestion this year, AAA recommends drivers to hit the roads after 9pm on November 24, the day before Thanksgiving, while it warns them to leave before 11am or noon on the Thanksgiving Day until Sunday November 28.

In its Thanksgiving travel forecast, AAA revealed that it expects to respond to over 400,000 calls for help over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The most common calls are for dead batteries, flat tires, and lockouts.  

Gas prices are also averaging about $3.42 per gallon this year, which is up about $1.30 from last year and about 80 cents from 2019. For those who plan multi-day road trips, mid-range hotel rates have increased about 39 percent, with average nightly rates ranging between $137 and $172 for AAA Approved Hotels. Daily car rental rates have also increased 4 percent compared to last Thanksgiving at $98. 

Other than travel by air or by car, other transportation means (including train, bus and cruise) will also increase to 1.02 million, nearly tripling the 2020 volume but still remain 31 percent lower than 2019 levels. 

Despite gasoline costing over a dollar more per gallon than this time last year, 48.3 million Americans are expected to travel by car, an increase of 8.4 percent from 2020. This total is higher than volumes seen as recently as 2019

Travel by other modes (including train, bus and cruise) will increase to 1.02 million, nearly tripling the 2020 volume but still remain 31% lower than 2019 levels

Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently released its recommendations for holiday gatherings and related travel, saying that the best way to minimize COVID-19 risk is to get vaccinated if eligible. 

AAA urges those who remain unvaccinated to explore safer options such as road trips with few stops and direct flights.

Traveling with unvaccinated children, who have recently become eligible to get their vaccines, will also no longer be a consideration for many families.

‘This risk is not so much the travel itself but what you do at the destination,’ said Dr. Leana Wen an emergency physician and professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health.

Trips involving visits to crowded indoor attractions and restaurants are higher risk.

‘Travel itself can be made very safe, especially if the younger children are able to mask. If they’re unable to mask, that is a major barrier,’ Wen told CNN, where she also works also a medical analyst.   

As of November 8, the U.S. opened its borders to fully vaccinated international travelers. The CDC has since updated its guidance to reflect these changes.

When traveling within the U.S., fully vaccinated travelers do not need a negative viral test or to self-quarantine. For international travel, a negative COVID-19 test is needed before traveling to the US, regardless of vaccination status.